World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives

by Barry B. Hughes

Book Overview

No Synopsis Available.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0801832373
• ISBN13: 9780801832376
• Release Date: December 1984
• Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
• Length: 256 Pages
• Weight: 0.75 lbs.

Customer Reviews

BetterThan A Crystal Ball

Author Barry Hughes sets the tone for his book early on. It starts by asking a number of questions, such as "[i]s global population growing faster than our ability to feed it? Should we expect economic growth to characterize the rest of the century?" These questions are seen with frequency in the field of future studies. But the author lets the reader know that he will not offer any definitive answers to these questions, as he does not claim to have abilities in interpreting a crystal ball. Instead, he honors the book's title by framing within a single structure different, and often opposing, points of view on a number of issues. Avoiding determinism, the author notes that "the arguments for forecasting are strong, we still must be very careful not to take our forecasts too seriously." The accuracy of the forecasts presented varied. Population estimates presented in the book were within range. The book did seem to avoid some areas altogether, especially in the political field. The fate of the Soviet Union, which collapsed four years later, was not only not anticipated, but also it was not addressed. The emergence of China was also ignored. When it came to energy use, the experts showed too much faith in the promise of emerging technologies, as we have repeatedly done throughout history. The cautious and informative approach taken by the author will fit well the critical reader, as the book does not attempt to offer simplistic answers to complicated questions. It is easy to dismiss books dealing with future studies that were published long ago. But reading such books, armed with today's precious retrospective, allow us to evaluate our own ability to look into the future. Reading this book was an interesting experience. The reader cannot help to realize that having a critical perspective proved to be more valuable than any crystal ball. Amazing how some things have not changed at all.