Why Flip a Coin?: The Art and Science of Good Decisions

by H.W. Lewis

Book Overview

"It is rare to come across a book that can truly be called fascinating, but here is one."-New Scientist Why Flip a Coin? What's the best way to choose the right spouse? . . . How can I increase my chances of winning the office football pool? . . . By what process should I choose a candidate in the Senate race? . . . Could I possibly make more money playing poker instead of the stock market? Using examples gleaned from everyday life, noted physicist...

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0471165972
• ISBN13: 9780471165972
• Release Date: April 1997
• Publisher: Wiley
• Length: 224 Pages
• Weight: 1.00 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.9" x 6.3" x 9.5"

Customer Reviews

Flip of the coin says five stars

i teach a course called "Risk" and I have never studied the subject. But I have lived with risks and probabilities. Whether you are a physicist or a mathematician, if you realize that your life sometimes hinges on other people's perception of risk, probabilities or chance, you can observe related behavior and try to examine the inconsistencies and the improbabilities in human thought and actions. I have used this book in my classes, even when I taught Insurance, and I have received e-mail messages of thanks from former students. It is not what H.W. Smith writes, but what he leads you to think that is so important. It is even enough that other reviewers have admitted that reading the book got them thinking. It sure helps me in understanding myself and others as well as my students. Although not very scientifically, I formulate hypotheses on 'how many in my class of sixty will prefer a fifty/fifty perspective to what should obviously be different odds, when it comes to personal finance, emotional relationships and even career choices. And the results are incredible. I do not accuse family members of being illogical anymore. This book is for everyone who wants more hints on understanding human thought and behavior. It allows a further parting of the curtain, in an easy and fun framework. This is the book that started it all for me, and I cannot thank Mr. H. W. Lewis enough. (I did not say Professor, because his personality and humanity is more important for me than his title, just on the basis of this one book.) I have only one additional advice to the reader, "If you must flip a coin, please do not regret the outcome of your resulting action. Call it Kismet and continue with your jolly life."

Something different

I have no interest in mathematics, economics or probability theory and yet I loved this book. The book is just downright interesting. It brought me along slowly enough so that I could understand the concepts, but was challenging enough so that I actually had to think. For people who enjoy some variety in their reading and want to try something different, I highly recommend this book.

I enjoyed reading this a lot.

I really enjoyed reading this book. But, trust me, don't explain the dating game problem with your girlfriend!The book starts off discussing the dating game. How do we find the best mate? What the heck does mathematics have to do with that? If you want to select the best spouse (rated by some criteria you've chosen) from a group of one hundred willing applicants, you have several ways to approach this decision.In the game, you are only allowed to date each potential candidate once. If you reject the candidate, the candidate lost forever, as he/she joins the monastery. How do you make your decision? If you just select the first potential spouse who comes along, you only have a 1/100 chance that you will select the best. That's not very good odds, as many people have discovered! Suppose however, that you date the first ten potential spouses as a sample. You then use this sample as a guide to what's out there. As Lewis writes, that's what dating's all about!By selecting the next potential spouse (after the first ten) who ranks higher than any of the sample of ten, you now have a 1/4 chance of getting the best. That's a far better chance than selecting at random!But, there are two ways your strategy could fail. First, the best spouse might have been within the group of the first ten. Then, you missed the best spouse. Second, the eleventh person chosen might be better than any of the first ten, but he/she might not be that good either. In fact, the candidate could be the eleventh worst.The question becomes: How big should my sample population be to maximize the chances of getting the best spouse? It turns out to be 36. You date 36 potential spouses and choose the next one who ranks higher than any of the first 36. This gives you a 1/3 chance of getting the best.However, another question is: Just how important is it to select the best mate from the lot? Would not one of the top five be adequate? Especially, if you minimize the chances of winding up with a real dud? By playing more conservatively and only sampling the first 30, your chances of getting the best decreases only slightly, but your chances of getting either the best or the second best increases to 1/2.By understanding the dating game, you've gone from having only a 2% chance of winding up with one of the top two spouses to having a 50% chance of getting one of the top two spouses!Of course in real life we face other problems, such as idealizing someone we dated long ago. We might bump them up to an unrealistically high rating against whom no one can compete! Maybe, some potential spouses just won't date us. And, it wouldn't go over too well to tell a potential spouse "I really like you a lot but you're only number 28. I'm waiting till I've dated 30 to commit!" Nonetheless, in our example, we can greatly increase our decision-making above the 1/100 chance of getting the best by random selection. So much for the metrics of mating. Even without understanding the full mathematical details, we ca

author's comment

I am the author, and am amused that Parsons claims "blatant mathematical errors in the book." That's a first for me. Name one.

NOT for actuaries & experts in statistical decision theory

The inevitability of decision making means it pays to understand how decisions are made, ergo decision science. Using examples gleaned from everyday life, physicist H.W. Lewis explains what decision science has discovered about the rules that govern good, and not-so-good, decision-making.This book is not intended for actuaries and those already expert in statistical decision theory. It is intended to help the rest of us improve our understanding of decision science, to become more inquisitive about how decisions are made, both by us and for us, and to function a little more effectively, both as individuals and as members of society.The author is Professor Emeritus in Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 1991, he received a Science Writing Award from the American Institute of Physics. He is a member of the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety.Reviewed by Azlan Adnan. Formerly Business Development Manager with KPMG, Azlan is currently managing partner of Azlan & Koh Knowledge and Professional Management Group, an education and management consulting practice based in Kota Kinabalu. He holds a Master's degree in International Business and Management.