In this landmark work, two leading theorists of international relations analyze the strategies designed to avoid international conflict. Using a combination of game theory, statistical analysis, and detailed case histories, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman evaluate the conditions that promote negotiation, the status quo, capitulation, acquiescence, and war. The authors assess two competing theories on the role that domestic politics plays in foreign policy choices: one states that national decision makers are constrained only by the exigencies of the international system, and the other views leaders as additionally constrained by domestic political considerations. Finding the second theory to be more consistent with historical events, they use it to examine enduring puzzles such as why democracies do not appear to fight one another, whether balance of power or power preponderance promotes peaceful resolution of disputes, and what conditions are necessary and sufficient for nations to cooperate with one another. They conclude by speculating about the implications of their theory for foreign policy strategies in the post-Cold War world.
This book is a masterwork of unbiased, apolitical analysis. These two ballers aren't math wonks, nor are they long-winded dinosaurs who talk and write themselves to death while contemplating every nuance of international relations. Rather, they examine real situaitons in the world with foolproof analytic techniques coupled with incisive analysis--a field of IR beginning to be referred to as "formal modeling" or "analytic politics." If you want to examine the basic assumptions and predicates for much of the writing in IR over the last 25 years, especially (place prefix here)realist thought, then purchase or at the very least read this book. It begins by utilizing an apples v. oranges comparison of [realist/realpolitik thought] v. [analytic/formal modeling thought]. Once the reader realizes just how valid the evidence of the authors is, he becomes very hungry for new information and perspectives on the world of IR to fill the void created by the lack of validity of realism or almost any derivative of it. The authors then explore just how complicated the world is, considering each rational actor in IR is also constrained by a myriad assortment of domestic concerns. By this time, the reader can become slightly skeptical because the analytic, overly logical environment he inhabits inside the book can be slightly intimidating due to its newness. Then, he turns to the appendices, where every single assertion of the authors is thoroughly buttressed by the rather simple math. If you have a GED, you can understand the vast majority of this math. It is the reliance on logic and numbers on the part of the authors that validates their ideas. These aren't men with vague, pedantic thoughts that happen to be well-timed who wield their Rolodex to validate their perspective on IR. Rather, they assert their idea while completely reinforcing it with non-Stephen Hawking math. The only way you can disagree with the fundamental core of their argument is to assert that 2+2 does in fact not =4. If you are one of those people who says "Well..what can numbers do in the field of IR. They can't really prove anything, can they?", let Bruce and David show you the way. At the conclusion of this rather cathartic (especially if the reader has read across the gamut of IR literature) experience, the reader is left with NO CHOICE but to admit that these gentlemen have hit the nail on the head. This school of thought hasn't completely turned IR on its head. Yet. It's not sexy. It's not flashy. (It is math, after all). But the operative words that apply to this text are: factual, proven, and applicable. Joe Nye & Co. are wrong and Bruce BDM is right. But don't believe Bruce. Just do the math.
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