Thinking and Deciding

by Jonathan Baron

Book Overview

The fifth edition of the classic text Thinking and Deciding updates the broad overview of the field of judgments and decisions offered in previous editions. It covers the normative standards used to... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0521659728
• ISBN13: 9780521659727
• Release Date: December 2000
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Length: 576 Pages
• Weight: 1.80 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.1" x 6.1" x 9.2"

Customer Reviews

An Actively Open-Minded Exposition

This is the fourth edition of Jonathan Baron's very popular textbook on decision-making and thinking. The text is inspired by, and develops carefully and in an entertaining manner, the basic theories and experimental results of Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, George Loewenstein, Paul Slovic, and others in the "heuristics and biases" tradition. This school of thought is only 35 years old, but it has radically transformed our knowledge of human decision-making. The material is inherently engaging, and students love to study it. This is an excellent book, and fully covers the subject material, except for graduate students who plan to work in this area, who should read the primary material on which this book is based. It is also great for self-study by the curious lay reader. Let me say at the outset that the negative reviews of this book are totally unwarranted. One is just the ranting of a persons who cannot give reasons, but only throw out unsupported, idiosyncratic, judgments. Another is by a reader with an ax to grind concerning philosophical issues in probability theory that are completely tangential to the purposes of this book I think these commentators would do well to withdraw their useless and diverting comments. Baron is a talented experimenter in his own right, although in the book he limits his material almost exclusively to the works of the Old Masters, Kahneman et al. His own contribution is on an interpretive level. First, his basic model of human behavior is what he calls the "search-inference" model, which turns out to be the economist's "rational actor" model, in which decision-makers have preferences ("goals" in the search-inference terminology), beliefs, and constraints, and act to maximize utility (goal-attainment) subject ot constraints. Baron defines "rational thinking" as "whatever kind of thinking best helps people achieve their goals." (p. 61) This, of course, is precisely the definition of rationality in the rational actor tradition in decision-theory. Of course, "preferences" are more specific than "goals," and it is not clear to me whether "rational" in Baron's sense includes achieving goals that are welfare-reducing (e.g., substance abuse), whereas in the rational actor tradition, rationality has to do with the attainment of goals with no evaluation of the relationship between goals and personal welfare. Baron introduces two normative notions which instructors will find useful. The first is the idea of "actively open-minded thinking," and the second is "multi-attribute utility theory." Together, they urge that decision-maker cast a wide net in evaluating alternatives before honing in on a particular choice. The examples illustrating the value of this approach are illuminating and helpful. This book does not make clear that there has been a second wave of behavioral experiments, starting in the mid-1980's that focus less on isolated decisions, and more on decisions in a setting of strategic interaction, using game th

Thorough and enlightening

Although exceeding five hundred pages of dense text, this book was hard to put down. Baron surveys a wide variety of research concerning human thought processes. It is written from a psychological perspective, rather than a neurological one, which makes it more practical. Baron draws together the descriptive (how we think), normative (how we would ideally think), and prescriptive (the best practical path to achieving good thinking) models of thought. He discusses the pitfalls people commonly make in areas such as assessing probability, or choosing short-term gain over the long term. He covers a broad range of topics, including: probability, decision-making, utility, moral thinking. The book is loaded with examples, and thoroughly footnoted with current research. In reading it, I became more aware of some of my own problem thought patterns, and learned new ways to model decisions. This book feeds the reader's need for both the abstract and the practical. I don't believe one can come away from it unchanged.

I am buying a second copy

People vote with their wallet --particularly when they do it a second time, when they REpurchase. Those who believe in the "revelation of preferences" should note that there are books one buys again when a copy is lost --particularly when they are read cover to cover. I am buying another copy of this book as mine was lost or misplaced. That should speak volumes.

Decisions, decisions, decisions

This is a _very_ impressive book. I can't imagine a more thorough overview of the study of human judgment, decisionmaking, and rationality.It's hard to find a good single volume in this field. For the psychology of judgment and decisionmaking, there's Scott Plous's excellent book of that title. For the heuristics on which we seem to rely and the biases they seem to generate, there's the modern classic _Judgment Under Uncertainty_ by (the late) Amos Tversky and (recent Nobel prize winner) Daniel Kahneman. And there are other books devoted to special topics and subtopics.But so far as I know, this is the only broad, general introduction to the entire field of thinking, how we do it, how we probably ought to do it, and the sorts of things we do it about.The book is divided into three broad sections. "Thinking In General" covers just that: what thinking is, and the nature of rationality and logic. "Probability and Belief" introduces not only probability theory (including, importantly, Bayes's Theorem) but the various theories about what probability _is_, as well as hypothesis testing, correlation, and "actively open-minded thinking." The largest section, "Decisions and Plans," is eleven chapters long and covers everything else: uncertainty, utility, decision analysis, theories of morality fairness, and justice, and risk.As you might imagine, Baron doesn't leave too many stones unturned. Heck, his bibliography alone is thirty-odd pages long.The book is eminently readable. The third edition is aimed mainly at graduate students but I gather Baron still uses it in his undergraduate courses. If you're a lay reader interested in this field, you'll be able to read it on your own with no difficulty.

A great introduction to Decision Theory

This is the first book I recommend to anyone interested in learning how to think and decide better. It is both an exploration of the usual way we think (and the mistakes we make) as well as a contruction of a toolkit for better thinking. It's well written and is at the level of an advanced undergraduate liberal arts course. Not too technical and mathematics oriented, but covers the concepts with rigor in an intuitive way. A good preparation for more technically oriented investigations of the subject.