The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy

by Will Hutton

Book Overview

The prevailing view of China is that the country is an economic juggernaut sure to become the dominant power of the twenty-first century. In this provocative and stimulating book, critically acclaimed... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0743275284
• ISBN13: 9780743275286
• Release Date: November 2006
• Publisher: Free Press
• Length: 421 Pages
• Weight: 1.27 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.3" x 6.3" x 9.2"

Customer Reviews

Whats the big deal?

As an American peasant, who has never taken a course in economics, I was curious about, What is all the todo about China? What is Chinas history that I would understand them better? How bad is the huge differential in GDP really hurting our economy? Whats the REAL chance of my job going over seas? Should I truely despise WalMart? Why don't we just with-draw all our troops, and to hell with the rest of the world? To say Mr. Huttons book is comprehensive, is like saying the Grand Canyon is Big. He made many good points, and seemed to make alot of sense to my un-trained mind. I will definately have to re-read it again to gain the full benefit. Did he answer all my questions? Yes and a whole lot more. I highly recommend his book to any who would ask the hard questions. Am I now fully educated on the subject? No. But, am I now a part of the enlightenment.....definately.

Brilliant analysis of how the United States should proceed in our relations with China.

I think it is fair to say that the conventional wisdom is that the United States and China are on a collision course. John J. Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago summarizes this point of view this way; "China and the United States are destined to clash militarily and the United States has an interest to do all it can to forestall China's becoming economically rich enough to challenge it." Author Will Hutton vehemently disagrees with this point of view. In "The Writing On The Wall" Hutton presents a methodical, logical and compelling case for the United States to pursue policies that will only encourage the continued and inevitable modernization of China. Hutton's thoughtful and convincing analysis of the situation certainly turns conventional wisdom on its head. According to Hutton, the continued mercurial growth of the Chinese economy is simply unsustainable given the current policies being pursued by the Communists who are still in charge in China. There is simply no way that the policies and political environment favored by those who are currently in power in Beijing can mesh with the continued and sustained economic growth that China is seeking. Time and again Hutton points to the nearly total lack of what he terms "soft" infrastructure as the primary reason why current Chinese policy is doomed to failure. This rather monolithic economic system lacks such fundamental cornerstones as a legitmate banking system, a free press and the ability of workers to organize. Add to that the fact that most major industries are still SOE (state owned enterprises) and it is plain to see why the major flaws in the Chinese economy are almost certain to rear their ugly heads in the near future with potentially devasting consequences for us all. And there are a whole host of other systemic problems with the Chinese economy that time does not permit me to list here. Hutton argues vigarously that the United States and the EU should be encouraging the Chinese to move away from those policies that will ultimately hold them back. I found "The Writing On The Wall" to be a particularly well written and equally well documented book. Will Hutton avoids a lot of technical jargon and presents his case in clear, easy to understand language. Based on my limited knowledge of China prior to reading this book I would have probably come down on the side of Professor Mearsheimer. I thought that conflict with China was a probably a foregone conclusion. But Will Hutton has convinced me of the wisdom of encouraging China to modernize and perhaps even in making some changes in the way we do business ourselves. "The Writing On The Wall" is an extremely thought provoking book and one that I can very highly recommend!

Extremely challenging book on China.... and the US

I have been reading up a lot on China these days, because of my work primarily, including such books as "Mr. China", "China Shakes the World" and of course "The World is Flat", dealing with China indirectly. These books dealt primarily, if not exclusively, with China's economic transformation, and they are all most worthy of recommendation. And that angle is what I was also expecting from this book. Boy, was I ever wrong! In "The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy" (421 pages), British author Will Hutton does of course also bring the staggering picture of China's recent economic rise. But that is just the beginning of the book. The real meat of this book comes from Hutton's careful evaluation of China's problems and challenges as the ruling Communist (and only) Party tries to walk the fine line between economic growth and yet being a state largely without the institutions of "Enlightenment" that allowed western states to achieve the status they have achieved in the 19th and 20th centuries. Problems abound everywhere, from corruption to disregard for the environment, employees' rights, health insurance, the respect/enforcement of law, and on and on. The author brings a lot of historical and well thought out perspectives on these issues along the way, for example the catch-22 the Chinese government finds itseld currently in on whether or not to revalue the renminbi currency, as most of the world is urging (either way, there are no good results for the Chinese, for reasons the author makes clear... so what is the Chinese government to do?). The latter third part of the book brings an equally challenging look at the US side of things, bringing to the front the currently corroding values of free trade, engagement with the rest of the world, and the values of an accountable government (culminating in an assessment of the Iraq war). At no point does one get the feeling that the author is saying that China or the US is "wrong" or "right", but the author concludes with an impassionate plea that the solution is not confrontation, but cooperation. This will be easier said than done. The challenges are many. Free trade and bilateral engagement are the answer, so much is clear, but can that be sold to the American public? Not to mention the many, many challenges the Chinese government is facing at home. In all, this is a terrific read from start to finish. Highly recommended!

One of the first enlightening books on China!

"China cannot thoroughly be understood from either a Western or a Chinese viewpoint. To grasp its nature requires an orbital, historical view of both the West and China," says Wei Wang, author of the best-selling business title The China Executive. Indeed, because of the same approach Will Hutton has adopted, The Writing on the Wall is one of the first truly enlightening books on China. Particularly admiring is the author's "ambition...[to] help tilt the balance towards international collaboration, contribute to a reappraisal of the so-called China threat and a recognition of the situation as an opportunity..." [China] requires our understanding and engagement - not our enmity and suspicion, which could culminate in self-defeatingly creating the very crisis we fear." Because of China's increasing impact on the world, anybody who cares about global peace and prosperity should read this book. And unlike many other books on China that are meant to terrify you, this book will enlighten you!

a timely contribution when the world has never been more interdependent

A stimulating and absorbing read. At a time when the world is far from flat, the Writing on the Wall makes a powerful case for why the West needs to keep its markets open and understand the profound difficulties confronting China. A high savings rate, swelling forex, excessive dependence on exports and FDI, anemic domestic consumption, misallocation of capital, rising inequalities, corruption and a stifled private sector (around three fifth of its exports and nearly all its high tech exports are made by non-Chinese, foreign firms) all underscore the extent to which China reaching the limits of the sustainability of its current economic model. Partially disguised by a benign global environment, these imbalances are becoming more difficult to contain as China becomes bigger. To this extent, Hutton shows how these increasingly costly problems flow from deeper institutional deformations - a point understood by the CCP and its emphasis on harmonious development. Whether this can place, as the CCP believes, without the introduction of more external forms of accountability is less clear. This goes to the heart of the matter - and Hutton approaches it with flair and finesse. In making the `economic' case for enlightenment values, Hutton steers a clear way between the dogmatic, frothy (if rather amusing) simplicities of both left and right. Hutton is clear to show how `Enlightenment values' differ from the crusading neocon agenda of markets and democracy. Pluralism is simply a response to human uncertainty and fallibility; its economic value derives from the multiple experimentation it permits. That is, it is the very antithesis of clunky top-down schemes. Similarly, following the work of Sen, Hutton demonstrates the way in which enlightenment values have their functional equivalents in Asia and elsewhere. In many respects, they have proven more successful than their Western counterparts. Japan's 'democratisation' of innovation a la Total Quality Management and Just in Time production systems, for instance, has forced a reassessment in the West of what it means to be a high-performance organization. By contrast, a country like class-obsessed Britain is depicted as a relative laggard in the Enlightenment stakes for it never invested in individual capabilities, notably education in the way that some other nations did. While talk of culture is seductively coherent, it is ultimately vacuous and, in the wrong hands, dangerously reifying. All cultures are caught between the tension and interplay of individualistic and communitarian tendencies (see Geremie Barme's 'In the Red: On Contemporary Chinese Culture') while the process of modernisation imposes its own discipline, however mediated it may be (see Eric Jones 'Cultures Merging: A Historical and Economic Critique of Culture'). To set up a binary opposition between one and another -say an individualistic 'West' and a communitarian 'East'- seems naive and churlish. The importance of what makes for a su