The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

by Ian Bremmer

Book Overview

Locate nations on the J Curve - left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0743274725
• Release Date: September 2007
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster
• Length: 336 Pages
• Weight: 0.90 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.8" x 6.0" x 9.0"

Customer Reviews

Worth the Read

Whether you're an avid reader or professional investor, Ian Bremmer's book is worth your time. Ian's writing is organized, clear and concise. The book is written for the average reader; you do not need to be a policy wonk to understand his points. Whether you agree with his conclusions or not, Ian Bremmer's book provides an excellent basis for continuing debate regarding U.S. foreign policy. Ian discusses eleven countries and their position along the J Curve. With each country, he discusses its history, current leadership style, the positives and negatives of U.S. policy towards that country and some suggestions of other approaches that could further openess and stability in that country. As an investor, I came away with a better idea of how to qualitatively measure short term and long term political risk. The one question I had after reading this book was whether our current global economic and governing organizations were structured or could evolve to address these instabilities. Ian Bremmer did address this issue at a professional investor meeting I attended. He was quite dynamic and covered material beyond his book. I'd recommend attending a book signing if there happens to be one in your city.

NeoHegalian Insights

Bremmer's paradigm for understanding political stability or instability is a refinement of Hegal's dialectic and an elegant appropriation of same. He is lucid and convincing (and a compelling writer). Unlike the narrow focus of a strict ideological lens (either left or right), the J Curve has a wide range of vision and offers a viable--- even healthful--- alternative method of assessment to the rigid ideological positioning that is now going out of vogue. Catch him in person on his promotional tour if you can. He's scary smart and a real fireball. His presentation segues perfectly into engagement with the book.

May you live in interesting times

This is a timely and thought-provoking book for anyone who wants to better understand our rapidly changing world but is required reading for anyone leading an institution - public sector or private - at the forefront of globalization. Ian Bremmer argues that none of us can afford to ignore the risks created by failing and failed nations in a world where disease, terrorism, refugees and weapons of mass destruction can cross borders more easily than ever before. The complex dynamics of openness and stability brought by globalization are challenging all societies, markets and governments in new ways. This book provides an excellent framework for understanding the journey. The J-Curve is an innovative approach to mapping these complex dynamics to the behavior of governments around the world. Much of what has been written to date has focused solely on the economic and social impacts of globalization. This book synthesizes those impacts and explains how they can undermine or strengthen a nation depending on where it is on the J-Curve. Understanding the political decision-making and the forces within their societies that are motivating these governments is the crucial missing piece of the puzzle laid out in the J-Curve. His insightful analysis distills the history and the current political, social and economic forces in the countries most relevant to the world economy and global stability - North Korea, Iran, Russia, Saudia Arabia, Turkey, China and more. Ian not only explains where they are but provides a framework to interpret current events and understand in which direction they are headed on the J-Curve. I find myself interpreting news in a new way after reading this book. Three environmental disasters in China this week and the government response is to tighten controls on journalism, a clear move up the left side. Opium production at record highs in Afghanistan - we are still aren't through the bottom of the curve. While he does provide some foreign policy prescriptions, you are ultimately left with an understanding of the limits of foreign policy in our increasingly complex world and the dangers in not providing enough of the right assistance to the nations most at risk.

making sense of chaos

Any business leader contemplating investing abroad should read "The J-Curve. Bremmer's model puts a whole new complexion on risk management that encompasses far more than the traditional emphasis on economic vulnerabilities. The book argues persuasively for greater focus on the role of openness in a country's stability and presents an unusually deep and detailed explanation of what true openness entails. It is also a useful prism for policy makers and just plain concerned citizens overwhelmed by rapidly escalating, apparently unpredictable events. The J-Curve is, to some extent, a tool for making sense of chaos. The contrasting studies of South Africa and Yugoslavia, in particular, are fascinating in light of the current efforts to build amity among hostile factions in Iraq. This is history for those who are truly committed to not repeating it.

smart, persuasive, engaged

The central argument of The J Curve is quite persuasive: the path from authoritarian "closed" societies to democratic "open" ones leads through a "dip in the curve"--that is, a prolonged moment of dangerous instability. In this way, authoritarian societies that begin to democraticize become paradoxically more unstable in the early stages of "opening." The J Curve is an explanatory model. But the book is normative as well: If "closed" states are ultimately to emerge on the other, "open" side of the curve, they require sustained international support, in particular from Western democracies. The J Curve is the work of a once precocious Sovietologist whose political education came inside a disintegrating Soviet Union-turned-dazzlingly successful president of a political risk consulting firm whose now experience extends far beyond former Soviet borders. Ian Bremmer's prose is lively, sharp and eminently accessible--free of both academic and policy jargon. His voice is a human one, and strikes a rare balance: devoid of sentimentality, but marked by an authentic concern about the human condition.