The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It

by Daniel A. Arnold

The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming 13 year depression of unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 159196153X
• ISBN13: 9781591961536
• Release Date: November 2002
• Publisher: Vorago-US
• Length: 64 Pages
• Weight: 0.25 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.3" x 5.4" x 8.3"

Customer Reviews

A CONCISE, EASY TO UNDERSTAND, BLUNT WARNING

Like most reviewers, I found this brief book to be a highly believable warning of the coming huge depression. How can you argue with a thesis that accounts for the US economy's ups and downs in detail for nearly a century!! Unlike the few, (like Special K below), who completely miss the key message, IT IS DEMOGRAPHICS that controls everything. Any economist will tell you that 70% of GDP is simply us (we are the demographics) spending our paychecks and, as Arnold points out, it's more like 90% when we add the government's spending of our taxes which they take from our paychecks. Arnold's thesis is a better developed version of noted economist Dent's theory that specific demographics always control where the economy is going. It's not really theory anymore - it's plain commonsense, which is what comes out in Arnold's book. Dent also predicts a massive "Mother of all Depressions" starting around 2010. Special K and his ilk, who are quite happy I'm sure to (correctly) attribute the coming Social Security crisis solely to demographics but want to insist that the economy in general cannot possibly be, are the ones that are going to lose everything in what's coming. Go read Arnold to understand (concisely WITHOUT 200 extra pages of added irrelevant "fluff") that demographics is really all that counts - and why. My God, he even shows how the Japanese near depression from 1990 to 2003 was caused by exactly the same demographic data within Japan. What more do you want? Read it.

A SIMPLE, CLEAR, DEVASTATING WARNING

Arnold is the only author I know of that has accounted for nearly a century of our economic ups and downs with stunning accuracy. Any theory that can do that, no matter how simple, must be given very serious consideration. Clearly, no theory can account for the economy over such a long period by a fluke. Although his use of demographics is hardly new, his weaving of all the elements together in perfectly logical ways is new. His charts are simple to understand and based on seemingly irrefutable data that, as the book says, anyone could go check if they had the time and stamina to do it. The final picture of a coming catastrophic 13 year depression, so elegantly laid out in this brief book, is very, very compelling. Although there will be those that try to put the book down on the basis that it is not thick enough, or does not consider every possible aspect of what could effect the economy, his thesis passes the test - IT WORKS! We ignore what he says at our peril.

Very Highly Recommended - Especially for Younger People

I have read this book several times since ordering it a few months back. The effect has been so powerful and overwhelming that I am going to order copies for my friends and family, and let as many people as possible know about this book and about Mr. Arnold's analysis. I am a member of Generation X, in my early 30s, and after several years of struggle, my financial situation has improved dramatically over the past year, due to good career decisions, debt reduction, good investments, etc.. Thanks to the advice and foresight Mr. Arnold has provided in his book, I know what I need to do to prepare and survive the coming economic day of reckoning. My concern now is for those who are unaware of just how good we have really had it in the U.S., and why the demographics in this book prove that we will enter a depression of some sort around the 2009 - 2012 area, and this depression will last for 10 years or more. I would encourage everyone and their friends to visit Mr. Arnold's website at www.thegreatbustahead.com, and read the article he has posted there. This is a good start prior to reading his book. I used to be an eternal optimist, and now consider myself to be a realist, thanks in part to this book. Don't despair: if you understand what is really going on and prepare for it (as Mr. Arnold points out) you can survive and even flourish during this upcoming depression. I especially like the phrase that was mentioned: Imagine it is 1922-23, and you are aware of the upcoming depression starting in 1929-30. It really provides a sense of clarity. I especially hope younger people will find out about this book (ages 12 to about 22) because they need to be aware of this upcoming predicted depression as they enter their early and prime working years. By informing themselves as much as possible, they can make the best possible financial decisions (such as minimize debt, build savings, and invest wisely) and build as much financial security as possible to help them survive this time period. If anyone out there knows someone in this age group who can benefit from this advice, I would highly recommend you read the book, and then introduce him or her to it. This is not meant to ruin their hopes for the future, but to educate them on what may likely happen, and to help them make the best possible go at it. Even though some may dismiss the book as somewhat simplistic, I respectfully disagree. The book makes a lot of logical sense. Some of the best and most meaningful ideas and advice I have received over the years have been very basic, and this book is no exception.

THIS VERY LIKELY WILL OCCUR!

Daniel Arnold illustrates here how the stock market has performed over the last 80 years, and why it has, and he also extrapolates it's performance out to about 2035, with a very bad economic depression starting sometime around 2012. Arnold uses demographics to come to his conclusions and he presents a very solid case indeed. He rightly criticizes stock market analysts for their short term forecasts, and also Alan Greenspan for faulty work also. This is a short, concise, and to the point book, I found it fascinating. About the only possible flaw I saw in this book is that Arnold believes that during the coming depression oil prices may hit [$$] a barrel. But if you read HUBBERT'S PEAK: THE IMPENDING WORLD OIL SHORTAGE by Kenneth Deffeyes, a picture of oil shortages emerges instead, which would exacerbate the economic decline. It will be interesting to see which force wins out here. On a personal note, I remember everyone buying those Nasdaq stocks in a frenzy back in the late 1990's, most of those companies were losing money right and left and their shares were selling for [$$-$$]dollars, or more! I thought it was a good example of "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours." Of course everyone knows that bubble burst. Japan's stock market bubble burst about 10 years ago, due in large part by an older generation spending less. The United States is headed the way of Japan, the massive post-war generation soon retiring and putting a damper big time on the economy. Arnold uses many graphs in this book, he clearly shows that the next handful of years may be okay, but watch out afterwards, the party may be over in a big way. The final few pages gives advice on what can be done on a personal basis to survive in the tough times ahead. Another interesting book to read, older by a few years is THE RETIREMENT MYTH by Craig Karpel.

Best book on this subject I have ever read

After the many books of the last decade or so that incorrectly predicted depressions based on convoluted wave theories and other hard to swallow ideas, it was a breath of fresh air, albeit shocking, to read this book. It offers seemingly irrefutable arguments for a coming depression of massive proportions, based on very logical demographic principles. The real convincer for me was that it provided real proof for this prediction by showing how the same simple concepts have accounted for the detailed trend of the economy since 1920. A quite remarkable feat. Even the author seems at times to be quite shocked by the accuracy of his results. With concepts that almost effortlessly explained the trend of the economy for the best part of the last 100 years, I found it very easy to believe what the book predicts for our future. Anyone who wants to at least have a fighting financial chance in what is coming our way a few years from now ought to read this book, especially baby boomers.