Tehran Rising: Iran's Challenge to the United States

by Ilan Berman

Book Overview

The Islamic Republic of Iran today constitutes the single greatest challenge to the United States and the War on Terror. In the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, Iranian policymakers are busy cobbling together alliances intended to elevate it to the status of a regional superpower at the expense of the U.S. and its European allies. In Iraq, Iran is spending millions to perpetuate a lingering insurgency that threatens to transform the former Ba'athist...

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0742549046
• ISBN13: 9780742549043
• Release Date: June 2005
• Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
• Length: 240 Pages
• Weight: 1.55 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.8" x 6.3" x 9.3"

Customer Reviews

Good Insights!

The Foreword by William Schneider (Undersecretary of State, 1982-86) relates that the Iranian radicals who held U.S. diplomats hostage for 444 days revealed in their memoirs that they originally intended to let the hostages go after only a few days, but changed their minds once Carter made it clear there was no danger of an American intervention. He goes on to conclude that for the U.S. to send the same message now to a nuclear Iran would be a tragic mistake. Iran has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the War on Terror - it has eliminated the threat posed by Tehran's most immediate military adversary, and U.S. successes against the Taliban have removed an ideological competitor for Muslim minds in that area. "Tehran Rising" states that the Islamic war against the U.S. began not on 9/11, but 2/79 when the Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran - "Death to the Great Satan, America." Subsequent activities include an April, '83 Hezbollah-orchestrated (U.S. estimates Iran support for Hezbollah at about $100 million/year) truck bombing at the U.S. embassy in Beirut - leaving 63 dead, six months later a similar bomb at the Marine barracks in Beirut leaving 241 dead, the March '84 kidnapping and later killing of a CIA station chief, and seven months later a bombing at the U.S. Embassy annex killing 24, including 2 American military. In response, Reagan in '84 ordered withdrawal - so much for exclusively blaming Clinton for today's surge in terror. The U.S. then went on, under Reagan, to support Hussein in the eight-year conflict between Iraq and Iran. Iran's nuclear effort involves close to two dozen sites, some hardened underground, spread around the country - the exact locations not known in all cases. The U.S. invasion of Iraq (no nuclear weapons), coupled with its failure to do so in North Korea (does have) has increased Iran motivation to get nuclear weapons. The head of Israeli military intelligence warned in January, 2005 that Iran was 6 months from enriching uranium. Iran also now has missiles capable of reaching Israel. U.N. resolve on the topic is limited by both Russia and China (major suppliers to Iran) having veto power in the U.N. Security Council. Iran's strength has resurged as the price of oil has recently soared, allowing heavy arms purchases. It now has a navy capable of blockading oil shipments - if not thwarted by the U.S. or others. Meanwhile latest news reports indicate it is seeking to acquire more. Iran's strength has also benefitted from the U.S.S.R.'s collapse spawning 8 new states in Central Asia/Caucasus, mostly majority Muslims and primarily secular un the Soviet Union. Further, Berman reports that the Russians now see Iran as a buffer against U.S. intrusions, and Iran's energy supplies luring Turkey closer to it. So, what should the U.S. do? Berman points out that our policy to-date has been unclear and indecisive. When seemingly moderate Khatami was elected the U.S. hoped for progress, and even ignored the Khoba

Is Iran Next?

This book is about Iran's rising international influence and activities. For that Ilan Berman quotes many open sources to explain her terrorist activities, regional ambitions and past US policies. Based on his interpretations of the situation, he also proposes in the last chapters how America should respond. The book starts with Iran's role in terrorism. The rising oil prices, has given Iran much extra dollars to spend on the global jihad. Iran is now not only funding the Lebanon based Hezzbolla but has expanded it's funding to control and operate a world wide terrorism network. For example they now also fund non Shia groups like, Islamic Jihad (main sponsor) and Hamas (10%). There is even evidence they work together with Al'qaeda to destabilize Iraq and work together with other enemies of the West like Cuba. At the same time as Iran is expanding it's global terrorist network, it also is aggressively investing in nuclear technology. They buy the technology from countries like China, Pakistan, Korea and Russia. Throughout the country, geographical distributed, fortified and underground the Iranians have build nuclear facilities. But besides investing in these nuclear technologies they are also investing heavily in other military industries. They develop and export missile technology that is already capable of reaching Europe; they are building their own submarines, fighter jets and lots of other weapon systems. This book describes how Iran is using these developments to become a regional super power. Ilan Berman argues that their regional power is so big that even the other main regional power, Turkey, is beginning to accept the dominance of Iran. The Iranian influence is also seen in the important Gulf region; especially the smaller countries come more and more under the influence of Iran. So far, the US, not to speak of Europe, has done too little to stop the growing influence of the hostile and radical Islamic state. The solution Ilan Berman proposes is to enhance the security situation of the other countries in the region, try to stop the nuclear imports and to combine these actions with a propaganda effort to the Iranian people in order to destabilize the Iran regime. Although this seems to be the absolute minimum, he does not succeed to explain the policy convincingly. What will happen when Iran goes nuclear, long before the long-term strategy for regime change comes about? He also does not explores the possibility that a new regime, although not radical Islamic in nature but probably Islamic nationalistic, will continue its nuclear development (The nuclear ambitions of Iran are predating the Islamic revolution of Iran.) Also the suggestion that America should exploit the regional power struggle, by helping the surrounding Islamic states to improve their security situation, is not a policy without risk. Ilan Berman his proposal seems to discount too much the unifying role of Islam. World wide, Islam has more and more become an unifying

Policy Analysis The Way It Should Be

Teheran Rising is a book that policymakers will find very valuable. As Professor Berman notes, two clocks are racing in Iran, the nuclear clock and the regime change clock. The United States, its allies, and Iran's neighbors have a vital interest in seeing that Iran experiences a democratic transition before the current regime can realize its nuclear ambitions. Teheran Rising describes the consequences of the worst case scenario, an emboldened Iran achieving virtual regional hegemony and continuing to utilize the cat's paw of terrorist surrogates which it has perfected in over 25 years of state sponsorship. I liked the book because it was clear and to the point; Professor Berman accurately analyzes the current situation in Iran, the probable outcomes and implications for the United States, and offers some innovative policy perscriptions. The US can try to ignore the Iranian problem but it won't go away. Anyone interested in Middle East policy should give this book a look.

A clear and present danger

Berman outlines the rapid rise of Tehran.For years it has been identified by the State Department as the number one state- supporter of terror in the world. But now on many diplomatic, political and military fronts it is creating new challenges for the United States. The most publicized of course is the nuclear front where Iran in defiance of the IAEA continues to work on its enrichment program. But more than this Iran has systematically conducted a campaign of lies and deceptions in order to hide its nuclear program. Berman himself is not sure how close Iran is to nuclear weapons at this moment, but he considers this threat one of the major challenges not only for military reasons, facing the United States today. Iran both in the Persian Gulf and in Central Asia is crowding the United States diplomatically. The outcome of the American effort in Iraq to create a viable democracy is certainly threatened by Iran's increasingly closer ties with the Iraqi Shiite majority. Berman points to the sources of instability in Iran. Its extremely young population the great majority of whom have known nothing but the regime of the Mullahs are restless and discontent. There are high rates of unemployment, and a general sympathetic attitude toward greater liberalization in cultural matters. But all the elements which are working from inside to shake the regime, are as Berman sees it, working at a slower pace than is the diplomatic and military threat Tehran is presenting to the West. Berman details operative policies through which the United States can counter the growing threat from Tehran. This is an invaluable and timely book which every student of US foreign policy would be advised to read.

This is the best book on M.E. policy I've read in years

These days, its hard to get Republicans and Democrats to agree on much of anything. So any book that gets glowing reviews from conservative congressmen and high-ranking Clinton-era officials alike is worth paying attention to. This book discusses the imminent threat that Iran poses in a way that is nuanced and comprehensive on one hand, and extremely accessible on the other. From nuclear enrichment to terrorism, from the Persian Gulf to Central Asia, Iran's activities are detailed in sharp and vivid terms. Where it really shines, however, is in the final chapters dealing with policy prescriptions. The author's suggestions for how the US can contain Iran are practical and workable, but he also makes a compelling case for Iran's latent democratic potential and empowering the forces of change within the theocratic regime.