Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

by Richards J. Heuer Jr.

Book Overview

2018 Reprint of 1999 Edition. Full facsimile of the original edition. Not reproduced with Optical Recognition software. This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 1594546797
• ISBN13: 9781594546792
• Release Date: January 1
• Publisher: Novinka Books
• Length: 216 Pages
• Weight: 0.76 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.6" x 5.3" x 8.4"

Customer Reviews

Very Insightful & Very Useful.

One reviewer has the following criticism: "The book is less than successful primarily because Heuer appears to believe that mere technique or `tradecraft' can be codified and used to produce good analysis." Whether or not Heuer actually believes this or not, I do not know, however, I disagree with this criticism as it pertains to this book. I have never worked in a formal intelligence environment or as an intelligence analyst, so I am only addressing what I perceived as the intention, stated or not, of this book. I believe it is clear that he is addressing this book (or series of articles) to those who are already trained intelligence analysts in some capacity, and is discussing the importance of, and giving some instruction on how, to avoid the pitfalls and hindrances associated with our human cognitive processes. From my perspective, he is not trying to teach a particular one-size-fits-all analysis technique, or trying to imply that anyone can perform and excel as an analyst just by following a prescribed procedure. Actually, I believe he addresses some very deep and sophisticated topics in a very practical manner. His writing is very plain and easy to understand, as are the examples and studies he cites to make his point. He does not attempt to write like a scientist, he keeps the subject matter on a level that makes it easy to understand, which in turn, makes it more useful to you. (You cannot apply what you do not understand.) In fact, as I read this book I could immediately recall situations in my life where I paid a price for making some of the mistakes he outlines and see that I could have brought about much better conclusions and solutions if I had the knowledge in this book. This is a very good book for any type of manager, lawyer, analyst in any field, detective, researcher, etc..I cannot imagine anyone not being helped by the subject manner in this book and his very practical instructional approach. I have used what I learned in this book, and couple others, in some recent business problem solving efforts, and had very successful conclusions to these efforts.

Excellent book on cognitive processes

Richards Heuer's Psychology of Intelligence Analysis is based on a compilation of declassified articles from the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence, prepared for intelligence analysts and management. However, this book will benefit anyone conducting analyses of complex scenarios in a structured way, including health care professionals, financial and market analysts from all industry verticals, law enforcement and security staff, auditors and fraud investigators, and many others. Heuer's point is that `analysts should be self-conscious about their reasoning processes. They should think about how they make judgments and reach conclusions, not just about the judgments and conclusions themselves'. The book presents a discussion of how mental models and subconscious cognitive processes can limit our reasoning capabilities (especially when coping with uncertainty and doubt), as well as an introduction on how we can try to understand and negate these effects. In his analysis, Heuer presents data from internal and external cognitive studies, scrutinizes past CIA success and failure cases, and proposes a re-evaluation of the way we generally look at problems. The author brilliantly makes his point in Chapter 13 by showing scenarios in which the reader is invited to review previous statements and `evidence' from the text, look at the discussion from different angles, methodically apply or remove certain models, and then compare his/her own conclusions as a professional analyst would be expected to do. The outcomes are disturbing, but not surprising. Disturbing because it is alarming to see how our judgments are normally biased by previous experiences, pre-conceptions and mental models; also because it is extremely hard to change or even notice this fact by ourselves. Not surprising because we can see the same analytical problems happening over time; even when talented, trained professionals are warned about the dangers of cognitive biases, such as `events that people experience personally are more memorable than those they only read about. Concrete words are easier to remember than abstract words, and words of all types are easier to recall than numbers. [Information having the qualities cited] is more likely to be stored and remembered than abstract reasoning or statistical summaries, and therefore can be expected to have a greater immediate effect as well as a continuing impact on our thinking in the future'. Heuer's presentation of the subject is very pleasant to read, fluid and rich in real-life examples from psychological research, political and military intelligence, and other domains. The author clearly differentiates empirical data from his own assumptions and opinions, even when his conclusions are naturally drawn from research data (i.e. following his own advice). The book leaves the reader with some unanswered questions as to how one can change his/her own biased mental models to improve the outcomes of an analytical process, as man

Realistic critical review

This book is a must for any one who wishes to avail themselves of knowledge in persiung a realistic analytical career.

An excellent source for analysts

Richard Heuer knows his stuff. A former director at The Agency, Heuer has the domain expertise to write intelligently about the practice of intelligence analysis. Combine this with his considerable research into the field of psychology, and his clear, succinct style, and you have an excellent source book for anyone interested in how analysts analyze: the good, the bad, and the ugly. Highly recommended.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Given recent events (WTC) this is a book that is a must read.The author very succinctly and methodically explains how as intelligence/information is gathered, a natural and possibly unavoidable human response may prevent an analyst from seeing objectively what is occurring.The author give examples of how an analyst will automatically start to correlate data into a primary analysis despite trying not to. As the author explains there is a strong tendancy to disregard information that is contrary to the analysts' primary analysis and over estimate the importance of data that correlates with the analysts' primary analysis. Thus the final analysis may be based upon a flawed primary analysis which is in turn based on incomplete data, colored any analytical prejudices the analyst may have.An absolute must read for any police or law enforcement officers. As well as anybody who must analyze data from engineers doing failure analysis to doctors doing disgnosis.