Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil

by David Goodstein

Book Overview

Our rate of oil discovery has reached its peak and will never be exceeded; rather, it is certain to decline--perhaps rapidly--forever forward. Meanwhile, over the past century, we have developed lifestyles firmly rooted in the promise of an endless, cheap supply. In this book, David Goodstein, professor of physics at Caltech, explains the underlying scientific principles of the inevitable fossil fuel shortage we face. He outlines the drastic effects...

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0393326470
• ISBN13: 9780393326475
• Release Date: February 2005
• Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
• Length: 150 Pages
• Weight: 0.35 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.4" x 5.6" x 8.3"

Customer Reviews

Other reviewers miss the point

I have trouble understanding why so many people favor intellectual debate over meaningful action. We don't need longer books or more detailed technical explanations. Denser treatises won't heat our homes or transport us around the globe. To me, the author's goal seems both simple and exceedingly well done: to paint an unvarnished picture of a world headed towards a disaster no one is taking seriously. Like some other reviewers, I have been researching alternative energy sources to fossil fuels. At present, they are pitiful. This book explains why the alternatives are so bleak, and why finding better alternatives requires a huge undertaking for which we require a much stronger resolve than currently exists. In my community, residents periodically "all" try to read the same book, and then discuss it. I wish everyone would read this book, not just in my town, but in towns and cities everywhere. It's understandable, direct, and extremely sobering. We don't need a better book on the subject; simply acting on this one would be a superb start.

why so many negative reviewers?

Some of the reviewers are obviously confused. If the projections David Goodstein made are his own, then the book is obviously worthless. But all these projections are based on publicly available data, and all the projections are saying that we're running out of all known energy sources within decades, I mean decades! Not to mention problem will occur much sooner than that since we're already at peak oil supply and demand still growing (think China)! It's especially evident in 2004, depite record profits of major oil companies reach ~$100 Billion, they're cutting back on oil exploration and R & D expenses. Why? Because they simply know there isn't more to be found! You can check the fact easily by looking at their 2004 annual reports. Thermodynamic is critical in understanding the severity of this problem, and can help you see through the properganda from special interest groups. For example, it takes engery to make a fuel-cell, and that energy must come from somewhere else. If you don't understand thermodynamics and want to discuss energy issues, you might as well believe in free lunch while discussing economics.

Demystifies and Explains the Consequence of Oil

This book should be required reading for all students in high school and college social studies courses. Anyone who is not yet well informed about how fossil fuels help define our economic and social culture should read it as well. I began reading this book knowing next to nothing about energy and oil. In fact, I began reading the book feeling that its subject was "somehow important", and had little expectation of actually reading every word (which I did). To my surprise, I discovered that Professor Goodstein, beyond being a foremost expert on his subject, is a master of the English language who is able to explain history, chemistry, and physics in a rarely encountered way which is both lucid and concise. I especially liked how he introduced short, telling biographies of scientists and inventors into his narrative. Forgotten science lessons came back to me in sharp relief. What is energy? What is "global warming"? What makes engines work? These are among many of the questions that are succintly and clearly answered. The relevance of energy to history and current events also became more focused for me. I imagined how ages passed that life sustained itself principally on the sun in a delicate ecological balance, and then how (with knowledge and resourcefulness) humans multiplied and prospered by exploiting their enviornment. Today, when persons protest against the War in Iraq by shouting, "No Blood For Oil!"-- are their insinuations that the United States is fighting an "energy war" to be believed? The author does not look at or address this specific topic. However, I thought about it the whole while I was reading, and armed with the facts he presented I, upon finishing the book, came to my own definite conclusion. Without revealing it here, I can unequivocably assert that the author (who reveals no partisanship) convinced me beyond doubt that the Energy Crisis itself is real and dire, and that it has immediate consequences for everyone. He also convinced me that wise and deliberate stewardship of our natural resources is imperative if civilization is to continue. Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil could be made into an excellent educational documentary film for public television, in a format similar to those presented by Boston's WGBH in its Nova series. This book's message is really too universally important to be left for just we readers.

Small volume, profound content

Goodstein's small volume discusses the consequences of having passed the peak of oil discovery and soon reaching the peak of oil production. He makes the extreme but correct claim that civilization as we know it will not survive, but will revert to no better than an eighteenth century world, unless we can find a way to live without the oil, coal, methane, and other fossil fuels which are running our electrical generation plants and our transportation systems.In the course of his discussion of the scientific basis for our fuel based society, he makes the useful distinction between energy conservation (That's the first law of thermodynamics, energy/mass is always conserved) and fossil fuel conservation (That would help postpone the crisis), briefly discusses heat engines and entropy (that's the second law - we need useful work not just energy). Goodstein makes the telling observation that oil is valuable and essential as a raw material (feedstock) for the synthetic materials, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries. Once we don't have enough of it, it will be more valuable for these purposes than it ever was as a fuel source. A chapter, possibly a book, could be written on this neglected aspect of the oil as a fuel issue alone. Drilling for the Alaska oil should be postponed, if not forever, until at least it is the last resource for the petrochemical industries.The alternatives to oil as the fuel source are examined. Goodstein identifies two as possible solutions to the problem. One is direct conversion of sunlight to electricity. This is something that can be done now but at nowhere near the efficiency and cost needed to be practical. It will need to be done much better to be a solution. The other is the feared and scorned nuclear power alternative. Nuclear power is not easy to discuss in a society that required NMR instruments to be renamed MRI instruments (magnetic resonance imaging instead of nuclear magnetic resonance) to avoid the dreaded word nuclear before introducing them into medical practice for diagnostic purposes, . People are frightened of nuclear fission power generation and there are issues to be resolved (safe disposal of long lived radioactive waste, safe operation of power plants). Goodstein has dismayed and offended people - see other reviews - for daring to raise nuclear power and identifying it as one of the two possible fuel source solutions.Goodstein is optimistic even in the face of his "civilization as we know it will not survive" statement when he identifies the solution as one of engineering. This is a case where the trite "If we can put a man on the moon why can't we ... " works. We don't need a break through in fundamental science nor do we need to discover a perpetual motion machine to overthrow the second law. We need to recognize that we have a serious problem which will require significant resources and serious commitment from top to bottom. (a U.S. entropy law rather than a new U.S. energy bill?). It is difficu

Non-hyperbolic treatment of a serious subject

David Goodstein does a good job of treating a flammable subject with the balance and seriousness it deserves. His conclusion is that there is no doubt that fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) will run out by the end of the century, but that we will be forced to begin dealing with the ramifications of falling supply long before that. Most estimates assume that the coming lack of oil will become a problem only when the wells have all dried up. Goodstein argues that the problems will occur much earlier - when production peaks at the half-way point of the planet's oil reserves. A point that is either here or will soon arrive.The book avoids a long and detailed discussion of the geological forces behind the formation of fossil fuels - giving just a brief overview - and doesn't discuss the techniques of oil exploration, production and drilling at all. Goodstein's audience is the person who is unfamiliar with the science behind the controversy and a large portion of the book is devoted to an overview of energy, fuel, the science behind the discovery of the uses of oil and our rising dependence on it (with one or two brief forays into the related phenomenon of global warming).I give the book 5 stars not for its fluid prose (although it is very readable) but because the author draws simple, firm and appropriate conclusions based on available evidence, while at the same time studiously avoiding hysteria and hyperbole to make his point. He also offers some alternative suggestions which, while unable to completely prevent economic and social dislocations that will be caused by falling oil production, do offer some hope.