Nine Crazy Ideas in Science: A Few Might Even Be True

by Robert Ehrlich

Book Overview

AIDS is not caused by HIV. Coal and oil are not fossil fuels. Radiation exposure is good for you. Distributing more guns reduces crime. These ideas make headlines, but most educated people scoff at... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0691070016
• Release Date: May 2001
• Publisher: Princeton University Press
• Length: 244 Pages
• Weight: 0.95 lbs.
• Dimensions: 8.5" x 1.0" x 5.8"

Customer Reviews

Nut cracker

Sometimes, not often, crazy scientific theories turn out to be right. Alfred Wegener's 1912 theory of continental drift is one famous example. Of the nine current crazy theories analyzed by physicist Robert Ehrlich, he judges three to be strong candidates -- he awards them zero "cuckoos." It would spoil the fun to say which three, but the nine are: more guns mean less crime; AIDS is not caused by HIV; sun exposure is beneficial; low doses of nuclear radiation are beneficial; the solar system has two suns; oil, coal, and gas have abiogenic origins; time travel is possible; faster-than-light particles exist; and there was no Big Bang. Ehrlich, a writer of gratifying clarity, says he tries to distinguish between crazy theories and nutty ones. The nutty ones are either unscientific (because they are untestable) or violate basic physical laws that are very firmly confirmed, like conservation of energy. It may not matter much, in daily life, whether the Universe started in a Big Bang or not, but some of the crazy theories have obvious everyday implications, like the one that says sunshine is good for you. We are bombarded constantly with "scientific" ideas that are not supposed to be crazy but may, in fact, be bogus. The techniques Ehrlich uses to examine these nine far-out ideas are meant to be guides to "how you can sort out the more promising ideas without having to rely on the opinions of experts," equally useful in judging mainstream claims. In perhaps the only bland statement in the book, he says, "in such areas as the environment and human health, the political biases of proposers may play a large role in how honestly they deal with a controversial idea." No kidding. A great many of the conundrums presented by these nine crazy ideas concern making sense of statistics, and misrepresented or misunderstood statistics are probably the biggest source of confusion in hot-topic science issues, from global warming to threats to health. "The human mind has a wonderful ability to see regularities in numerical data, even when none really exist," writes Ehrlich, a professor at George Mason University whose other popularizing books include "Why Toast Lands Jelly-side Down" and "Turning the World Inside Out and 174 Other Simple Physics Demonstrations." Although "the great majority of strange ideas that are testable are simply wrong," Ehrlich says, "a few might even be true." There are enough out there that he says he is considering a sequel, "More Crazy Ideas in Science That Might Be True," and he's looking for nominations. (He did write a sequel, "8 Preposterous Propositions," see my review.) It's a bold physicist who solicits theories -- most have more crank letters than they want -- but Ehrlich's e-mail is rehrlich@gmu.edu.

The crazy idea of today can be the fact of tomorrow

Science is an area where the crazy idea of today can become the fundamental fact of tomorrow. However, not all of them make it to that exalted level, as some crazy ideas never rise higher than that. In this book, Ehrlich examines nine ideas currently considered to be on the fringe of science. He begins by setting down some criteria for consideration. *) The idea must be verifiable. For example, the premise that the Earth was created by God in six days but made to appear as if it was billions of years old is not verifiable. *) The idea must be championed by a respected scientist. No idea put forward by a self-educated person was considered. He examines each of the following positions: *) More guns means less crime (3 cuckoos). *) AIDS is not caused by the HIV virus (3 cuckoos). *) Sun exposure is beneficial (0 cuckoos). *) Low doses of radiation are beneficial (1 cuckoo). *) The solar system has two suns (2 cuckoos). *) Oil, coal and gas have abiogenic origins (0 cuckoos). *) Time travel is possible (2 cuckoos). *) Faster-than-light particles exist (0 cuckoos). *) There was no big bang origin of the universe (3 cuckoos). After presenting the current state of evidence both for and against the idea, he assigns it a number of cuckoos from zero through four. Zero cuckoos means he considers it possible, one means that it is probably not true, but there is no convincing evidence against it, two means very likely not true, three means most certainly not true and four means certainly false. Ehrlich's discussions are also a lesson in how science is performed. The rules and techniques that are used to test new scientific ideas are described. As he points out several times, data is often ambiguous and it often takes years of collection and analysis to remove the uncertainty. Non-scientists often have the misconception that scientific proof is certain, when in fact it is not. The explanations are written at a level where the amount of technical knowledge needed to understand the ideas is kept to a minimum. Science progresses in many ways. In some areas, it is a steady progression of better data gathered over many years, where theories are worked out to the next decimal place. In others, new data require a modification of the theories, but in some cases, radical new ideas are announced and meet with a great deal of entrenched skepticism. Most of those ideas go nowhere, but some turn out to be true. That is one of the most fascinating aspects of science and Ehrlich succeeds in capturing some of the charm by describing his opinion of nine of those radical ideas.

A Great Book

I throughly enjoyed this book and I recommend it to most people interested in any of the 9 ideas or just in science itself. I am hoping for and anticipating a sequel to this book. I have also gotten the Albert Lea High School library to buy it.

Tremendous!

Although the title may seem a bit corny, and the cover graphics even cornier, the book's content is very serious. In a writing style that flows beautifully and logically, the author presents nine "crazy ideas", one per chapter, and proceeds to review the evidence, both for and against them. By quoting recent research results and analyzing them in the light of other, often conflicting, evidence, the author does a superb job of illustrating how science works and how some seemingly "crazy ideas" may turn out to be not so crazy after all. In fact they can (and some have) led to important scientific discoveries. If this book and books like it were required reading by everyone, they would contribute towards making the general population less gullible about various, often pseudo-scientific, claims and would provide people with the basic tools needed to form their own opinions. This book is a valuable contribution to the world of science. A tremendous book!

Some crazy ideas make sense

I've read many books and essays by authors who keep speaking of conspiracies, racism and other isms that blocked good ideas. Robert Ehrlich's gem of a book isn't like that at all. Ehrlich takes some contentious ideas and carefully considers the evidence. Each chapter is 20 pages or so, the reasoning is clear and most should be understandable by high school seniors. Also, the book is very fair. There are no ad hominem attacks. In the case of More Guns, Less Crime and the hypothetical nemesis planet, Ehrlich goes back to the original data and shows how enthusiasts have distorted it. The book would be a wonderful basis for a college course in science for non-scientists. Science is very important in today's world, yet few of us feel able to even roughly evaluate new claims. We rely on those who share our political persuasion. My favorite was "Oil and gas are not fossil fuels." Ehrlich's coverage of faster than light particles and time travel is clear, as would be expected from his physics background. He does very well on the life science issues as well. We should be more open to crazy ideas, and I hope that Prof. Ehrlich writes a sequel.