Lady Luck: The Theory of Probability.

by Weaver Warren

Book Overview

"Should I take my umbrella?" "Should I buy insurance?" "Which horse should I bet on?" Every day ? in business, in love affairs, in forecasting the weather or the stock market questions arise which... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0385054599
• ISBN13: 9780385054591
• Release Date: January 1963
• Publisher: Anchor Books
• Length: 392 Pages
• Weight: 0.55 lbs.

Customer Reviews

The best introduction you can get

It's simple but not at all 'dumbed down'. It's clear. It's very readable. The math is not out of control so the material is very accessible for non-technical readers. You will get a good intuitive feel for probability; not many books privide that. What more could you want? If more mathematical rigor is required get Feller's book or take Weaver's advice on page 102-103.

delightful

A pleasant and insightful read. I finally understand Bayes theorem now in a practical sense. The idea of calling the chapter exercises 'puzzles' rather than 'problems' or 'exercises' is a good one - more math authors should adopt this convention I think.

A classic and one of my favorite books

Some years ago I got the idea that I could, by studying probability and statistics, work out a way to beat the Las Vegas bookies by betting on baseball games. Hmm..., one might say. Well, I was young and while not exactly foolish, I was adventurous and liked challenges. Anyway, I knew a little mathematics and a little probability, but it was only when I picked up this absolutely charming book and began to read it that I realized with a kind of glee and something akin to a thrill that I was about to learn something of great value. Warren Weaver, a good friend, by the way, of Claude Shannon, the great information theory pioneer, has a wonderful gift for expression and an equally wonderful gift for explaining things clearly and making his subject matter exciting. And the engaging illustrations by Peg Hosford do nothing but add to the excitement. From the very first words in the book, "This book is, in one sense, about thinking. About a certain way of thinking, that is...," I knew immediately what he meant and that I had stumbled upon exactly the sort of book I was looking for. Weaver begins literally with "Thoughts about Thinking" and illustrates how probabilistic reasoning, as he calls it, is the only kind of reasoning that can help us answer certain kinds of questions, questions such as will it rain today? or is Alex Rodriguez, who hasn't had a hit in five at bats, due for a hit this time up? or "if I have my left lung removed, what is the chance that the cancer will really be cured?" (p. 28) He follows this with a most interesting short chapter on the history of probability, "The Birth of Lady Luck." And then he explains "The Concept of Mathematic Probability." His exposition was so clear and such a pleasure to read that I can still recall the delight I experienced in reading it for the first time. In the chapter on "The Counting of Cases," Weaver gets down to the basics of compound events and the difference between combinations and permutations--knowledge that is necessary, for example, in order to analyze a game of chance, especially games involving dice or playing cards.. The next chapter covers independent events, and then there are some famous problems including the one involving dice throwing that the Chevalier de Mere presented to the celebrated French mathematician Blaise Pascal. Weaver had mentioned it earlier, noting that this historical problem from 1654 actually marked the above mentioned "birth of Lady Luck." In other chapters Weaver introduces us to the law of large numbers and explains the "maturity of chances" fallacy and some other fallacies. He explains in a particularly clear and utterly convincing manner why the so-called Martingale system and other "doubling up" systems yield no advantage to the bettor, and why, if any given independent event is disadvantageous for the bettor, no system of betting on such events will ever lead to an advantage for the gambler. In the case of doubling your bet after each los

Fun, flowing, and surprisingly rigorous introduction

The main strength of Mr. Weaver's "Lady Luck" lies in its sheer readability. Mr. Weaver is very careful about presenting his arguments so that they may have maximum intuitive appeal, while at the same time refusing to compromise the mathematical rigor that is necessary to construct any serious theory of rudimentary probability. What is most important about the work is that it provides the reader an extremely entertaining and well written framework for thinking about questions of probability. A concept such as "independent random variable" which a mediocre statistics textbook may quickly skip is a surprisingly philosophically complicated idea, and has troubled academicians, let alone lay people. Mr. Weaver's work, far from being in any sense "slow," deals with how we are to take into account this very basic ideas that form the starting point to this particular area of the mathematical sciences. Finally, Mr. Weaver's references to distinctively late 50s early 60s phenomenon provide an entertaining look at the thoughts of the time.

Lady Luck is a charm

I could not put this book down. The author, Warren Weaver, writes in a very unpretentious, personal voice. He unravels the complex subject of probability in a manner that is both encouraging and challenging. The reader develops a personal intuition for applying basic probability formulae (with careful consideration of relevant factors and an increased sense of self-confidence). I believe this book could be understood by any person familiar with basic algebra. On the other hand, the average physics PhD would likely find it equally interesting, because its intuitive approach is so refreshing.