Deflation: Why It's Coming, Whether It's Good or Bad, and How It Will Affect Your Investments, Business, and Personal Affairs

by A. Gary Shilling

Book Overview

Although all eyes have been on Southeast Asia since October, it's not the only game around. A broader look shows that the financial crisis in that part of the world is to global deflation what the... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0961856246
• ISBN13: 9780961856243
• Release Date: June 1998
• Publisher: Lakeview Publishing
• Length: 372 Pages
• Weight: 0.95 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.9" x 5.2" x 8.3"

Customer Reviews

Excellent book, easy to read, in depth analysis

I found this easy-to-read book very profound in its analysis of the inflation-disinflation-deflation pattern that we are witnessing today.The book is filled with charts that highlight the author's message. The last several chapters on investment, business, and personal strategies are priceless.No weasel words in this book. Lots of forecasts.John D.

Informed & rational summary of a plausible scenario.

Shilling predicts good - rather than bad deflation (at least for the USA): i.e. surging demand absorbing excess supply because of price falls. It is a US-centric view - weaker on the international side. Deflation addresses an important & neglected subject. The slow start is tolerable because of good, up-to-date graphs and data generally. Happily he is consultant-clear rather than economist-arcane. His analysis of the US economy is compelling & useful for foreign readers. Nonetheless, there are questions: will policymakers (including central bankers) not adjust; e.g. I understand that defense spending has started rising again. Shilling's review of factors such as the internet is useful. The foreign material is poorer - though his Asian chapters are good. Bizarrely for such a serious & scholarly work, there is no index.Shilling is worth reading - he thinks the west will experience `good' rather than `bad' deflation - but how deep will the Deflation be and how long will it last? He could have usefully studied natural resources in more depth; after all, this is where deflation hit hardest and earliest. I will read him again.

This book is a MUST read for investors!

This book will help you make sense out of the headlines you have been seeing everyday in the business section of your paper. It will help you "connect the dots" about megatrends you maybe were aware of, but not taking into account with your investment decisions. I read this back in August 1998, and it is amazing how current events seem to be playing out almost exactly as forecasted in the book. You should not miss the chance to read this.

Outstanding Book

This book might better be called "Shilling on Deflation" -it rivals the mega best-seller "Bogle on Mutual Funds." You might buy it just for the incredible historical charts and facts which are unavailable elsewhere.One thing it lacks, however, is a concise argument why we would encounter mild deflation without being on the gold standard - which historically has caused mild deflation for decades in the 1800's and early 20th century. I do not see how the U.S. consumer is going to suddenly turn into a japanese-like saving machine, on Alan Greenspan's watch, unless Greenspan screws up very badly.Nevertheless, this is the guy who published in 1983, "Is inflation ending? Are you ready?" - ignore him at your own peril! His investment and saving strategies also justify the purchase price of the book.

Excellent book. A must read.

Dr. Shilling's book is very well written. While it reinforced my suspicions that we are entering a deflationary era, it also provided a necessary historical perspective about "good" and "bad" deflations -- necessary perspective because most people (including me before reading this book) associate the word deflation with the Great Depression. The author's writing style makes the topic accessible to everyone. The book loses one star because of the lack of an index.