Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game

by Jay Bennett and Jim Albert

Book Overview

A look at baseball data from a statistical modeling perspective There is a fascination among baseball fans and the media to collect data on every imaginable event during a baseball game and this book... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 038700193X
• Release Date: April 2003
• Publisher: Copernicus
• Length: 428 Pages
• Weight: 1.64 lbs.
• Dimensions: 9.0" x 0.8" x 6.0"

Customer Reviews

baseball statistics interpreted by professional statisticians

Jim Albert and Jay Bennett share two traits that make them the perfect authors for this type of book (1) they are both baseball fans who know the game and have seen many games and much statistics from many angles and (2) they are both professional statisticians who understand probability and the subtle aspects that chance can have on statistics. By being professional statisticians they also know how sophisticated statistical techniques can add to ones ability to seriously address questions of strategy and comparison of player performance. That is what they accomplish in this book, teaching some basic probability and statistics along the way. They also make it very interesting to the baseball fan by raising interesting baseball questions related to players that the fans relate to, namely the stars that the fans follow and the great clutch hits and clutch defensive plays that we baseball fans have imprinted in our memories, like Mazeroski's game winning home run in the 1960 World Series, or Willie Mays' famous over the shoulder catch of Vic Wertz's long fly ball in the 1954 series, or Bobby Thompson home run that won the 1951 playoffs for the Giants. In the very beginning Albert and Bennett distinguish themselves from the sports statisticians that are hired by the teams. The sports statisticians collect the data and present it in various ways. However, this is merely exploratory data analysis. Albert and Bennett point out that a numerical difference in a hitting statistic such as on base percentage between Chuck Knoblauch and Kenny Lofton may be a real difference in ability but may also be a small enough difference to be merely due to chance. Finding ways to analyze the baseball data to make probabilistic inferences like answering the question of whether Lofton is better at getting on base than Knoblauch is the focus of what professional statisticians do and is the theme of the book. In the course of reading the book you will learn many things about baseball. Some may agree with previous notions and some will be surprises. You will learn about the massive amount of major league baseball data available, about SABR a society for baseball research and more. You will be opened up to the hinden world of professional statistics where probability models have been used for over a century to handle military, engineering, energy, environmental, agricultural and medical problems. These same tools in recent years have been used to handle baseball questions also. They start with simple table top baseball games like All Star Baseball to introduce concepts. They then move on to baseball data and probability. Then they look at statistical questions, situational effects in Chapter 4, hot hitting in Chapter 5, methods of measuring offensive performance in Chapter 6, more sophisticated measures in Chapter 7, simulation models in Chapter 8, measures of clutch play and team value in Chapter 9, ways to predict performance in Chapter 10, analyzing World Series result

good statisticians, pretty good writers

This one is a book for the Sabermetrically inclined who already have a background in stats. In the first couple of chapters, the authors review some basic concepts through the lens of baseball before getting into some deeper analyses. To be honest, there's nothing in here that you can't get in Baseball Between the Numbers (although to the authors' credit, this book predates BBTN by 6 years) but it's a decent starter's guide. Worth the read, although those with a background in Sabermetrics will probably want to pass.

Good, but could have been better

As a statistician and baseball fan, I had high expectations for this book. Generally, those expectations were met, although I came away from this book feeling like an opportunity had been lost. The biggest problem with the book is that the authors can't seem to decide how much knowledge to assume of their readers. The first 100 pages or so are presented at a sub-high school level, while the last few chapters assume the reader to have taken higher-level college courses in statistics. Also, I do not expect any book to be written and edited perfectly, but the typos actually become an occassional distraction from the text. On the whole, though, I would still recommend this book--it is by far the best contemporary statistical breakdown of the game of baseball. It is an especially good complement to Michael Lewis's "Moneyball," which is a more anecdotal presentation of similar material. If you enjoy baseball at all, and have even a passing interest in batting averages, ERAs, and HRs, you will be entertained by this book and will probably learn a lot, too.

Good, but could be better

I'm not sure who the target audience for this book is. At the beginning the introduce the most basic of statistics concepts as well as the most basic of baseball concepts. And at the end they seem to assume lots of knowledge of statistics. As both a baseball fan and a mathematician, I felt the beginning of the book very slow, but I also worry that someone who isn't knowledgable in both already might have trouble following some of it.That said, the book was very well written, and posed some interesting ideas and questions. I wish it had been longer, as the last few chapters were really getting me into sabermetrics!

A "must read" for all baseball fans and enthusiasts

Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics And The Role Of Chance In The Game provides the non-specialist, general reader with a sophisticated by accessible approach to statistics that can greatly enhanced their understanding and appreciation of baseball numbers and the game itself. With their unique and original approach to the subject, Jim Albert and Jay Bennett have successfully collaborated to present a coherent and informative introduction and survey of the many statistics that are a part of the baseball experience. Curve Ball is a "must read" for all baseball fans and enthusiasts.