Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

by Robert R. Prechter Jr.

Book Overview

What if certain Japanese investors in 1989 had a book that prepared them for the economic DEFLATION and 12-year bear market? Likewise, what if certain American investors in 1929 had a book that prepared them for the stock market CRASH and Great Depression? They would have used the forecast to avoid the crisis, of course -- perhaps even to come out ahead. Robert Prechter has just published a book that will prepare YOU for a financial crisis at least...

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0470849827
• ISBN13: 9780470849828
• Release Date: June 2002
• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
• Length: 294 Pages
• Weight: 1.37 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.0" x 6.2" x 9.7"

Customer Reviews

Who are you going to believe?

Subscribers to Prechter's newsletters will have already read most of what is in this book. But for the other 99.99% of investors in the world who are not his subscribers, he has distilled down his reasoning and recommended course of actions into one convenient place.This book is really two books within one set of covers -- the publisher even uses two different kinds of paper stock to differentiate the "books." In "book one," Prechter draws from history and shows charts & graphs (some going back 300 years) of what has happened in situations similar to what we are going through today. Known for his Elliott Wave analysis, Prechter does not stop there. He uses all of the tools of technical and fundamental analysis to methodically build his argument that the current market downturn is very far from over. Like a lawyer presenting a case, he covers everything from esoteric considerations such as rising federal debt as a percentage of GDP, to public psychology, to the ultimate impotence of the Fed. At the end of the section, the reader is left with the choice to either believe that history repeats, or that "this time it's different.""Book two" presents practical advice of what to do now. He offers suggestions of what to do if you're in the stock market and your account is way down. He covers junk bonds, real estate, treasuries, pension plans, 401Ks, insurance, gold, and the whole spectrum of investments. To help the reader, he lists the safest banks in the country. He has eye-opening advice for people who are relying on government protection such as FDIC bank account insurance. Finally, he shows how to actually profit in the environment we are currently in.Some disparage Prechter for his past fault of getting out of the market too early. It's a valid criticism; nevertheless, every one of his predictions are currently playing out. How do you argue with someone who is right?Ultimately, the reader is left with a choice. One is to follow the financial mass media, economists and brokerage analysts who say recovery is just around the corner. The other is to look at history and Prechter's prediction, along with his track record of being only one of a handful of people to predict the magnitude of the market crash. Who are you going to believe?

wish I read this book sooner

This book is a must read. I picked it up 10 days ago and could not put it down until I finished it. My only regret is that I did not have access to this book a few months ago. It would have saved me a lot of anxiety and money as I have suffered w/ other investors through a tortuous decline in the market. I have been aware of the Elliott Wave concept for years but admittedly not as a serious student of the concept. Prechter gives a good introductory course to the basic elements of the Elliott Wave concept so the reader can understand where the market is in Elliott Wave terms. More valuable however to me was how the author tied this discussion in with relevant economic statistics that helped explain why the markets are in the precarious position they are today. In other words, whether or not you are a student of wave theory, after reading this book you will have a sufficient explanation, in relevant and cogent terms, why you must heed the author's advice and get out of the market now! A reason I have always been a fan of Prechter is whatever he says or writes comes from the heart and mind of an individual who seems to be able to make bold predictions about the markets- my favorite call of his was in the early eighties re gold- without being intentionally sensationalistic. Prechter calls things the way he sees them not merely for effect. His sincerity- he is not afraid to admit he has been wrong,which he does more than once in this book - makes his bold predictions that much more believable. The support he gives for those predictions,especially as they relate to the impending (I think its already here!)crash, will make any reader of this book want to heed his recommendations right away. Although a couple of his suggested safety havens might seem a bit extreme, the vast majority of his suggestions of what to do w/ your money in an environment where no market or sector provides adequate refuge, are extremely helpful. I have already modified my investment behavior on the basis of reading this book.Although I am disturbed by the potential magnitude of the decline the author predicts, I received some consolation from the fact that I now have a cleare vision of what lies ahead and I am more confident that I will not be missing out on any great stock rebound near term and will be able to preserve whatever resources have not already been ravaged by this market so I have something left when the market turns up somewhere down the road. Finally, I am an avid follower of the market and market trends and read a lot of pundits who have varying views of the market. I think Prechter is as good as they come in providing a sincere and easy to follow discussion of where the market is going and why. Whether you are a beginner or advanced student of Elliott Wave, or don't care about the wave at all, there is important and relevant facts about economic growth, market liquidity, stock valuation etc that provide compelling evidence to support Prechter's conclusions. Unders

Conquer the Crash ( OR Invest and Perish)

This is probably the most important book of Bob Prechter from the standpoint of social service.The first book of Bob in the early's 80s suggested investing in stocks for a multi year profit against the bearish consensus.He was right and the herd was wrong.Now he is suggesting to everyone who would listen to take out the money before it is too late.History should prove him right again and the bullish herd wrong.This is the one book in the market that has all the arguments necessary why the US ( and many other Global markets ) must decline now to abysmal depths.It bases it's arguments on the internal evidence of market price history ,explains how to interpret that historical data using a non-conventional but more proven method,the Wave Principle, besides studying other relevant economic and financial aspects of the issue.The logic is comprehensive but pointedly simple and sharp and leads you to the ummistakable conclusion that most markets are headed for a catastrophic collapse.Having convinced you of this most probable outcome it then guides you step by step to pull out your money,suggesting avenues for safe keeping if you are not a market trader who knows how to play a bear market.This is probably the first book ever compiled as a Financial Guide to protect money from destruction.If by chance you have strayed into the wilderness of the markets then this is the compass to get you out and safe before darkness.

Read This Book While There's Still Time!

"How much time is left?" That's the question that kept ringing through my mind as I finished reading Bob Prechter's new book, Conquer the Crash. "How much time is left? And how fast can I take appropriate action?" There's definitely a sense of urgency created in this insightful and wonderfully readable book. While it's not specifically about equities trading or financial astrology, the topics that provide the usual focus for Financial Cycles, it's required reading for market astrologers, active traders, and anyone else who wants to enhance his or her prospects for economic survival in the years ahead. Prechter, the world's preeminent authority on Elliott Wave theory, makes an extremely convincing argument, not only that we are headed for a major market crash and a widespread depression much bigger than the one 70 years ago, but also that we will experience severe deflation, halting and reversing the inflationary trend that has been a bedrock assumption in virtually all financial planning throughout our lives. He examines market history, social psychology, and the prevailing money myths to create a startlingly clear vision of some pretty scary situations that demand serious attention. Along the way, he illuminates the workings of the Federal Reserve, assesses the impact of increasing terrorism, examines the outlook for government, and makes suggestions for employers, collectors, and prospective retirees. And while he isn't writing about financial astrology, he does provide vital insights into the workings of economic and social cycles-not only Elliott Wave, but the Kondratieff long wave as well. That's not to say that this is a technical book written only for seasoned analysts or would-be experts. In fact, the opposite is true. It contains some of the clearest, easiest-to-understand material I've ever read on Elliott Wave. But more importantly, its real charm, and its usefulness, comes from the fact that Bob Prechter is writing for average folks who probably haven't really given much thought to what might happen to the economy in the years ahead. And while some of the insights in Conquer the Crash are scary enough, this isn't really a doom-and-gloom piece. It's chock full of practical tips for specific actions you can and should take right now. You'll find valuable guidance here, not only on how to handle the stock market ("The opportunity to make money on the downside in a deflationary crash can hardly be overstated"), but also on real estate, bonds, insurance, banking, annuities, and precious metals. And the actions Prechter suggests aren't vague generalities-you'll find easy-to-read check lists of the particular things you can do in various situations, plus specific names of financial and research institutions that can provide additional help, along with toll-free phone numbers, URLs, and other contact information. All at once, Conquer the Crash manages to be gripping, thought-provoking reading, a handy reference book, and a st

Read This Book While There's Still Time!

A lot of what drives market activity--and what creates opportunities for profitable trades--is herd behavior. When prices start to go up, the bullish sentiment spreads, and as soon as a crowd gets involved, a rally is underway. When fear sets it, it gets contagious and the market crashes. But the really big opportunities come from the ability to step outside of the herd's expectations and see things from a different perspective. If you have the wisdom and the courage to go against the popular belief, you can reap substantial rewards, especially if your timing is right. And someone who demonstrates that ability to defy the herd is someone worth paying attention to. Robert R. Prechter Jr. is a good example. As the world-renowned popularizer of the Elliott Wave Principle, he has repeatedly revealed his capacity for original and insightful thinking. Along the way, he has time and again come up with startling forecasts for the markets and for the economy, sharing perceptions that boggle the minds of the more pedestrian pundits who are hopelessly locked into linear thinking. In 2002 Prechter published a watershed book, Conquer the Crash, in which he made some astonishing predictions that defied the popular logic of the time, when the focus of the financial experts was on buy-and-hold strategies in the stock market, speculation in real estate that could presumably only go up in value, and on hedging investment positions with sophisticated derivatives as a kind of portfolio insurance. And what did Bob Prechter predict? The implosion of collateralized securities. The collapse of Fannie Mae and the crumbling of major banks. The failure of bond-rating services to issue timely warnings. The advent of bailout schemes from the government. And an extremely rare, simultaneous plunge in real estate prices, commodities, and the stock market. Oddly enough, as one after another of Prechter's forecasts were precisely reflected in the financial news of recent years, he didn't get much attention in the mainstream press. Maybe it was because his book also featured another prediction--that we are facing a deflationary depression. While some would argue that deflation is impossible under the present circumstances, it might be prudent at least to consider that possibility, especially considering the stunning accuracy of Bob Prechter's other predictions. And if you're willing to take a peek at that scenario, Prechter has just the thing for you--a brand-new edition of Conquer the Crash! All of the analysis and insight from the original edition is included in the new second edition. But Prechter has added 188 pages of entirely new material, and every one of the book's pages is worth reading and re-reading, even if your copy of the original edition is coffee-stained and dog-eared. There are plenty of fresh gems between the covers. Here are just a few samples: "It is not the case that Fed chairmen are either fools or geniuses, as their records appear to imply. Th