Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population

by Panel on Population Projections, National Research Council, National Research Committee on Population, et al.

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question.

Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well...

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0309069904
• ISBN13: 9780309069908
• Release Date: July 2000
• Publisher: National Academies Press
• Length: 368 Pages
• Weight: 1.30 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.9" x 6.3" x 9.4"

Customer Reviews

no math & stats but easy to read and understand

This is a book that examines the issues you encounter when forecasting demographic variables and focuses on long-term forecasts. This is not a book on methods, you will not see any formulae, it only gives you ideas for how you should approach long-term demographic forecasting, what to think about etc. See it as an 'advisor' to your research. Because there is no mathematics or statistics in this book so it can be understood by almost anyone with a basic experience of statistical analysis regardless their field of study. Basically the book talks about the major demographic variables: fertility, mortality, and migration. It also talks about how forecasts are made and what to watch out for. The different contributing authors talk about their own experiences and give advise, together with examples, graphs and tables. In short this is a book for researchers to help them understand their variables better. I really liked this book, it was easy to read and understand. The content of the book is: 1. introduction 2. the accuracy of past projections 3. transitional fertility 4. posttransition fertility 5. mortality 6. international migration 7. the uncertainty of population forecasts (8. biographies and index) Note that the appendices of the book (dealing with formulae, software use, simulation data etc.) has to be bought separately from the publisher's website. You will not get any of the formulae used or statistical software guides used in the book, which was a big disappointment to me because that was one of the reasons I bought it. Because of this the book looses a star.