America's Coming War with China: A Collision Course Over Taiwan

by Ted Galen Carpenter

Book Overview

One issue could lead to a disastrous war between the United States and China: Taiwan. A growing number of Taiwanese want independence for their island and regard mainland China as an alien nation.... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 1403968411
• ISBN13: 9781403968418
• Release Date: January 2006
• Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan
• Length: 216 Pages
• Weight: 3.15 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.8" x 6.4" x 9.5"

Customer Reviews

Good as an Introductory Book

This a decent book, certainly, but I disagree with the premise that America's supposed schizophrenic approach to dealing with the two Chinas could be the determining factor in sparking a war. What's more likely (if we're going to play the speculation game, which, you will have noticed, most China analysts like to do) is that war would occur in spite of the US's efforts to keep the status quo, which has been the cornerstone of its policy for decades. Indeed (and here, I disagree again), although it may appear as though the US's position is inconsistent, this only helps serves its own purpose: to keep Beijing focused on its "precious island," and away from, say, Japan while at the same time forcing Taiwan to purchase whatever multi-billion dollar (used) arms package it has lying around. I would posit the US's approach(es) consititute one of that country's greatest foreign policy successes. And by not always being consistent (a statement by George Bush comes to mind), the United States is (purposefully or otherwise) beating both Chinas at their own game. But how long the US can keep this up is the big question. And to that end, the author is probably right in believing that Washington and Beijing are on a collision course over the Republican backed "renegade province," but I'm just not sure if he understands the hows and whys. And the answers to those question have a lot more to do with the Chinese heart than politics, something a think tank analyst might not be so familiar with. Again, it's not a bad book, and it could very well enjoy a huge surge in sales after the Olympics. (You see? There's that projection, again.) Also, what a great cover. Whether intentional or not the red in the Nationalist flag symbolizes the blood soaked soil of China. I give this book four stars. It makes for a good overview even if I don't agree with everything the author is saying. Troy Parfitt, author

How to Avoid the "Dire Straits"

Ted Galen Carpenter's America's Coming War with China: A Collision Course over Taiwan (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005) is must reading for anyone interested in Sino-American relations, or in U.S. grand strategy generally. Although most Americans - foreign policy analysts, scholars, and interested citizens - understandably are preoccupied with events in the Middle East (Iraq, Iran, Lebanon) and the War on Terror, when it comes to impacting the U.S. role in world politics, in the longer term these events almost certainly will be overshadowed by the rise of China to great power status. In America's Coming War with China, Carpenter - the Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank - provides a succinct, elegant analysis of why Taiwan could be the trigger for a major war between China and the United States. His main thesis is simply stated: the current U.S. strategy of "strategic ambiguity" on the question of whether it will come to Taiwan's defense in the event that island is attacked by the People's Republic of China is neither likely to deter the PRC from using force against China, nor to restrain Taiwan from declaring its independence from the mainland (which inevitably would trigger a Chinese military response). Instead, Washington's stance of strategic ambiguity runs a high risk of causing leaders in either Beijing or Taipei - or, quite possibly in both capitals - to blunder into war because they have miscalculated how the United States would respond to a confrontation between Taiwan and the PRC. Carpenter does an excellent job of distilling a great deal of history to manageable, understandable dimensions. In an early chapter, he traces the history of Taiwan since the time of the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95). In that war, a Westernized, modernizing Japan soundly defeated a backward China, and, as its main spoil of victory, acquired Taiwan (or Formosa as it then was known) from China. Formosa/Taiwan remained a part of the Japanese Empire until Japan's defeat in 1945. Japanese rule - though harsh in some respects - contributed crucially to the island's economic, political, and social modernization and helped to foster created among its residents a sense of apartness from the mainland. Formosa/Taiwan reverted to rule by the mainland between 1945 and 1949. In 1949, the ongoing civil war in China - which pitted Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist (Kuomintang, or KMT) regime against the Chinese Communist Party lead by Mao Zedong - resulted in the decisive military victory of the Communists. The defeated Chiang, and the remnants of his regime and army, fled across the Formosa/Taiwan strait to establish a last redoubt on that island. As Carpenter shows, the roots of the current Taiwan problem are traceable directly to the outcome of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. When Chiang and the Nationalists set up shop in Taiwan, the did not renounce their claim to sovereignty over the

Wake up call

While most of our attention is focused on Iraq, the Middle East, and the Muslim world, Carpenter reminds us that United States could be walking eyes wide shut into a potential crisis with China. Carpenter shows how plausibly easy it would be for the U.S. to find itself drawn into a conflict with China and raises the fundamental question that the defense and foreign policy establishment (Republican and Democratic, liberal and conservative) continue to sidestep: Is Taiwan a vital U.S. national security interest worth risking war with China? Carpenter argues "no" and lays out a more prudent U.S. policy course of action that is radically different than policies pursued by current and previous administrations -- neither hawkish or accommodationist. The last thing United States needs is to make an unnecessary enemy out of China. Unfortunately, many of neo-conservative ilk who are either in or influencing the administration have long had China in their sights and seem all too willing to take on China even though we are embroiled against a far more dangerous threat: al Qaeda and other radical Isalmist terrorists. The question is whether Carpenter's cautionary tale will be a guide for avoiding catastrophe or a tragic prescient "I told you so."

Will Chinese Patience Win Out Instead

Is war inevitable between China and Taiwan-and the U.S.? ==Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute; he has written six books on international affairs and more than 300 articles and policy studies that have appeared in prestigious newspapers and journals. All those who care about world peace and understand the potential for catastrophic confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan must read this brilliant book. ==According to Michael Pillsbury, a leading scholar of Chinese affairs, material from military strategists inside the People's Republic of China proclaim that America is a declining power with but two or three decades of primacy left. ==Beijing insists that the Republic of China (Taiwan's official name) is merely a renegade province of the PRC and is determined to get Taiwan to return to the motherland. The United States has pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity that seeks to both preserve friendly ties with Beijing and protect Taiwan's de facto independence. ==Avoiding Calamity is the title of Mr. Carpenter's final chapter-perhaps there is hope of a peaceful resolution if the U.S. takes considered action soon.

Avoiding a Confrontation with China

In the years ahead there is no more important relationship than that between the U.S. and China. Unfortunately, as Ted Galen Carpenter details in America's Coming War with China, these two nations are headed towards a train wreck over the issue of Taiwan. Truly frightening is the possibility of a nuclear confrontation at a time when the Cold War seems like ancient history. Carpenter's carefully reasoned analysis should scare us out of any complacent assumption that everything will work out. Unfortunately, U.S. officials don't seem to know what they are doing, irrespective of whether they are Republicans or Democrats. Carpenter maneuvers between those who would accommodate Beijing and those who would prepare for war. One can only hope that America's Coming War with China is widely read, especially inside Washington.